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Given the results at the state election Labor will be nervous about this seat.
I agree SpaceFish. The result depends on how much of the Labor vote swings away as well as if the Greens can hold onto most of the economic populist or disaffected vote and can funnel a huge portion of preferences to Labor.
This is one of the few seats that ONP can win but Libs cannot the other notable one being Shortland.
@Ben Raue for incumbent member you have Nick Champion the state member Taylor instead of Matt Burnell.
I would argue Brand, Burt, and Scullin might fit that description too
@ Maxim
The reason i did not include Brand was because it has been said if Hastie is leading the Liberals and they Labor party is facing a 2013/1996 style defeat Brand may fall to a Hastie-led Liberals due to Hometown effect. Burt was notionally Liberal when created so i did not include it as i want to more time to see if it will actually fall under a 1996 or 2013 style scenario.
With Respect to Scullin, it probably has the highest percentage of Southern/Eastern Europeans which are receptive to ONP but it has a much lower share of Anglos and a higher percentage of Muslims and South Asians than average so it depends on Racial polarisation for ONP to win.
I also did not include Bendigo, Ballarat, Blair and McEwen which Coalition has won in the past and may do again in the future.
I think is a seat which is Populist Central mainly people in poverty as there was a large Green Vote in 2025 yet voted No to the Voice but that Green Vote became significantly weaker in 2026 State Election (probably mostly to One Nation).
The Labor 2PP increased in 2025 because of the big drop in the Liberal vote and rise in the Greens vote.
I can see a strong One Nation challenge here. Labor would likely hold Sturt, which they just won in 2025, but risk losing Spence.
Spence is an almost like a rust belt seat. However, billions are spent on domestic manufacturing projects particularly with AUKUS and Future Made in Australia. It has a lot of working-class ‘Sanders-Trump’ voters who are generally economically populist.